The Fair Grounds Oaks has been a gold mine for producing winners of the Kentucky Oaks: Six of the last 11 winners of the Fair Grounds Oaks, starting with Ashado in 2004, went on to capture the Churchill Downs filly classic.
Odds are that the trend won’t repeat itself this year, given how Songbird and Cathryn Sophia have been so dominant on opposite coasts. Even a huge effort by the Fair Grounds Oaks winner on Saturday would make her no better than a fringe player going forward to Kentucky.